Agriculture is one of the key economic sectors in Armenia. It is significant not only as an important contributor to the nation’s economic well-being, but also as a sector that affects the country’s security, the productivity of land use as well as the population’s health, nutrition, and quality of life. However, Armenia is highly vulnerable to global climate change and is counted among the most sensitive countries in Europe and Central Asia regions.
Armenia is a landlocked country with 90% of its territory situated at over 1,000 m above sea level. The terrain is mostly mountainous, with fast-flowing rivers and a few forests. The climate is highland continental, which means that the country is subject to hot summers and cold winters. A high frequency and magnitude of hazardous hydro-meteorological phenomena (HHP), which trigger droughts, landslides, mudslides, forest fires, etc. and inflict significant losses on the population and the economy, are characteristic of the country.
In recent decades, HHP-related threats have been coupled with a significant increase in temperature change rates. The frequency of warm days/nights has dramatically increased, while cold days/nights have decreased significantly. Climate projections indicate that temperatures across the country may rise by 4.7ºC by 2100, combined with an 8.3% decline in average annual precipitation and an increase in the frequency and intensity of other HHP. Changes such as these will impact all-natural and managed systems, water resources, agriculture and food security, human health, settlements, and infrastructure.
Climate change is expected to have three main effects on crops in Armenia:
Pasture area and yields are forecasted to decline by 4-10% (19-22% in the most valuable pastures in the sub-alpine and alpine zones). Grassland yields could potentially decrease by 7-10% which could reduce fodder production. Additionally, outbreaks of crop diseases and pests are likely to become more severe, owing to changes in the range of pests and diminished winter dieback. Some opportunities may also be presented by climate change – for example, while pasture yields may decline in existing areas, these pastures could be expanded as the growing season lengthens. In addition, temperatures may rise in the foothill areas, where precipitation may increase or hold steady, thus enhancing the environment for fruit tree production.
We are not only talking about the future − these processes have gradually begun taking place.
The government has recognised the issue of climate change impact and developed/adopted various decrees as well as plans relating to all aspects of mitigation and adaptation activities, such as sustainable development, energy efficiency, sustainable agriculture, protecting land, soil and water resources as well as waste management. To ensure the financial stability of the agricultural sector, government authorities have been implementing various financial instruments (subsidy programmes) to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
And indeed, innovative approaches have already been developed in both the state and private sectors, for example, the introduction of intensive orchards. There are many other investment measures, which are promising and important for the local market, such as sustainable and climate-smart technologies: drip irrigation and hail nets. In addition, the expansion of greenhouses also enables local farmers to get great value for money, and at the same time mitigate the adverse impact of climate change. Armenian agricultural businesses need to invest to improve their efficiency so that they can both compete at home and take advantage of change-driven opportunities. The challenges faced represents the clear potential for more sustainable development.
Do you plan any investments soon? Let us know about your ideas and we will gladly advise you on potential technical options as well as inform you how they can be financed with the support of the GEFF in Armenia Programme.
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