Egypt Economic Outlook
In the first quarter of fiscal year 2019, which runs from July 2018 to June 2019, the annual economic growth rate moderated slightly from the previous quarter’s multi-year high. The largest contributions to growth in Q1 came from the natural gas, wholesale and retail, agriculture, and telecommunications sectors, in descending order. Higher inflation, a small uptick in the unemployment rate and slower industrial production growth likely weighed on growth, however. Meanwhile, the second quarter got off to a rocky start in October, with business activity in the non-oil private sector contracting for the second consecutive month and at a faster pace than in September. More encouragingly, the IMF is close to making a further USD 2 billion of financial assistance available to Egypt and praised the government for recent reform efforts on 31 October.
This fiscal year should see solid economic growth thanks to higher government investment spending, rising natural gas production and an improving regulatory environment. However, large fiscal imbalances will weigh on economic prospects. Focus Economics panelists expect GDP to expand 5.2% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.2% again in FY 2020.
Source: https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/egypt