According to a joint study published by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, the average temperature will increase in Georgia, in parallel to global climate change.
The forecast published by the organisations above considers several climate change scenarios, according to which, if global carbon emissions increase at the highest forecast rate, then by 2090 the average annual temperature in Georgia will be 4.9°C higher. In an alternative scenario which assumes the best conditions for reducing carbon emissions, the average temperature increase in Georgia by 2090 is 1.4°C.
Carbon emissions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a result of global industrialisation. Georgia’s impact on global emissions, however, is minimal (representing only 0.03% of 49 billion tonnes of global GHG emissions). China is the largest single polluter in this regard, emitting 11.7 billion tonnes annually, followed by the USA with 5.8 billion tonnes.
The World Bank study considers four main scenarios. According to the RCP 8.5 trajectory, which does not envisage a reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions, by 2090 the average temperature in Georgia will be 4.9°C higher.
The RCP 2.6 scenario envisages a reduction in global emissions in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. Under these conditions, according to the forecast of the World Bank, by 2090 the average temperature in Georgia will be 1.4°C higher than today.
The four alternative scenarios for climate change are as follows:
Georgia has also undertaken to reduce carbon emissions and general GHG emissions. In particular, the goal announced by the state is that by 2030 the country’s GHG emissions will be 35% lower than the 1990 figure.
The highest emissions in the history of Georgia were recorded in 1990, when many large factories were operating in the country before the fall of the Soviet Union. That year, CO2 emissions reached 16 million tonnes; however, in the five years following independence, emissions decreased by a factor of seven, falling to only 2.3 million tonnes. During that period, the industrial capacity of Georgia was at zero and almost no factories were in operation. By 2004, the economy’s emissions had increased to 4 million tonnes of CO2; by 2010, 6 million; and 10 million in 2020. This level is 38% less than the emissions reported for 1990.
Currently, Georgia’s per capita carbon emissions are 2.5 tonnes per year, compared to the world average of 4.5 tonnes. Accordingly, the economy of Georgia emits 44% less carbon emissions per inhabitant than the world average.
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